Right now were navigating staycations and road trips.
But soon well be in the thick of fall, and after fall comes winter.
And COVID-19 isnt going anywhere.
We are, of course, fighting to flatten the epidemic curve.
We are in for a long winter.
Heres how it might pan out.
September
Some schools have started already, and some have already had to send students home again.
Will things run smoothly?
Call me a pessimist, but I wouldnt bet on it.
Whatever plans youre making, expect them to be upended.
The announcements will be even more chaotic than they were in the spring.
Back then, everybodykneweverything would be canceled.
Everybody will be waiting on everybody else to be the first to cancel.
(You will hold this position of responsibility throughout the winter.)
October
Halloween will likely proceed much like school reopenings.
In many parts of the US, October is when it starts to get cold.
Outdoor parties and patio seating at restaurants will be a bit chilly, but well power through.
November
First, the election.
Lining up to vote in person seems like a bad idea.
Some states let you drop your ballot off in an approved drop box, but is that accessible enough?
Will we hear about long lines and overfull drop boxes on election night?
Maybe there will be clusters of COVID stemming from the election.
Oh, andflu season may start ramping up around now.
And what will we do about Thanksgiving?
If case counts are still high, everyone might be better off staying home.
But how many people will be able to resist?
December
There will still be holiday parties, Id bet.
This year, well have to decide how many ourcontact budgetwill allow.
Maybe case counts will be low and we can let loose a little bit.
(Maybe wed be better off canceling everything.)
Maybe too many to keep track of.
By now its definitely too cold to hold every gathering outdoors.
Those of us in the northern climes will risk the coronavirus every time we meet in person.
Well also be jealous of Californias weather.
January
This is another transition point that will be hard for a lot of us.
Back in March, I began to suspect that 2020 was canceled.
Every event, every semester, every season, everything.
By 2021, though, wed be through the worst of it and things would be different.
But if we have a rough December, theres no reason to believe January will be any better.
We could see spikes from holiday parties and winter travel.
Chances are, the vaccineif it materializeswill still be a long way from universally available.
And well be facing a new year with no clear sense of how long our troubles might last.
I would really,reallylike to be wrong.
like prove me wrong.
Lets get fast, reliable testing to all who need it.
Lets pay people to stay home and extend hazard pay to those who cant.
Lets find alternative solutions for everything that normally has to happen in person.
Lets study the heck out of this virus and how it spreads.
And maybe, just maybe, well luck out with a vaccine too.
In April, it seemed like things were taking just a teensy bit longer than planned.
Its going to be a long winter.
