The National Hurricane Center expects Hurricane Florence to cause life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding when it makes landfall later this week, and now theres a tool that gives us an idea of just how catastrophic that impact will be.
This trackerfrom ESRI takes the familiar prediction model and uses it to calculate some key demographic data for the area inside the error cone.
ESRIs tracker shows the total population, total households, and total educational organizations in Florences projected path:
Clicking on the individual items in the legend pulls up more data, including the proportion of the total population thats over age 65, and how many of the total households are below the poverty line.
At the time of writing, 16% of the affected population is over 65, with 15% of affected households living in poverty; the median household income is $51,000.
Whether youre smack dab in the danger zone or watching the storm from afar, you should know how to correctly read an error cone projection.
ESRI has an efficient summary in the description of their tracker (emphasis mine) that hits on the main points:
The Cone of Uncertainty…represents
the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone
, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc).
It is important to note that the area affected by a tropical cyclone can extend well beyond the confines of the cone enclosing the most likely track area of the center.
In other words, if your cityor your loved onesis outside the error cone, it just means that thecenterof the storm isnt expected to pass over; areas outside the cone can still expect high winds and heavy rain, and should watch local forecasts extra-carefully in the days to come.
Thats the most important thing to take away from error cone projections, but if youd like a more in-depth explainer,this Wall Street Journal piecebriefly explains how theyre calculated, how to correctly interpret them, and what the limitations are.
Understanding the potential human cost of a stormespecially among vulnerable populationsis a crucial first step to mobilizing support for communities thatll see the worst of it.
Get your hurricane plan locked down, check in on your friends and family, and be prepared todo some vettingbefore making any donations to relief efforts.
